September 07, 2004

Bush Will Bury Kerry

JK has started the post-labor day season with a bit of impressive mathematics. I know he's just excited and proud over finding a (the?) solution, but one might conclude there aren't important political stories to discuss, here on the home of jazz, guitars and right-wing politics.

WSJ's Brendan Miniter uses his column today to make a stunning prediction -

"Mr. Kerry will be lucky to top the 45.7% of the popular vote Michael Dukakis got in 1988."

I'll summarize Miniter's summary of the reasons:

- Promised to raise taxes, just like Walter Mondale.

- Republican turnout on Nov. 2 will be boosted by formerly indifferent evangelical Christians and the urgency of continuing a proactive war against terror.

- Campaign finance reform has been a net advantage for Bush vs. Kerry.

- Union voters in several key swing states will have difficulty voting for the patrician Kerry.

- Swing state economies are as good or better than the national average.

- Kerry's 'tell them what they want to hear' strategy reveals his own lack of confidence that his message, when delivered clearly and consistently, will win the day.

- Dem strategists are urging Kerry to concede the most important single issue of this election - national security.

- Kerry's come from behind victory against Bill Weld was closer than it should have ever been for a two-term Democrat senator in the only state carried by George McGovern.

Miniter closes with an analogy:

"Democrats politely say that he's not very charismatic, but the truth is that he's like a tone-deaf musician who stumbles into a gig at Carnegie Hall and can't understand why the crowd doesn't cheer."

See, I even managed to work some Jazz into this blog!!

Posted by JohnGalt at September 7, 2004 10:13 AM

Well played -- and I got the guitar post above in, working on some shard of an economic angle...

I liked the article and mostly agree, my two exceptions are:

-- I don't really believe the swing state economies are outperforming the nation. I fear the opposite is true, much to the political good of Senator Kerry.

-- this media is not gonna give up without a fight. Sixty minutes is warming up a National Guard expose, Kitty Kelly has a new book out on Sep 14 (I'm counting the days!). Governor Dukakis did not have such a compliant press.

Was it NRO yesterday -- I'll try to find and link -- that had a nice article about how unfair the Kerry/Dukakis comparison was. To Dukakis, who was a man of principle and decency if not a great candidate.

Posted by: jk at September 7, 2004 10:54 AM
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