September 30, 2004

jk's debate prediction

Twenty before one pm, and I post my pick. It may not be original, but I will go out on a limb.

The debate structure precludes a forceful victory. It's all about not blowing it. Either candidate could say something stupid or confess to a felony or something. But the big mistake is to try too hard. President Bush, with a lead in the polls and an incumbent's demeanor, will not do this.

Kerry needs to make up ground. He will try too hard, as VP Gore did in 2000 (ironically when he didn't have to).

W doesn't dazzle; Kerry tries too hard and comes off a bit creepy. The President picks up 4-5 points when the new polls are out.

Posted by jk at September 30, 2004 12:44 PM
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